| 📊 Alain’s Holdings — June 12, 2026 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Symbol | Name | Price | Change | Change % |
| VOO | Vanguard S&P 500 ETF | 681.95 | +3.72 | +0.55% |
| QQQ | Invesco QQQ Trust | 721.34 | +4.22 | +0.59% |
| XIU.TO | iShares S&P/TSX 60 ETF | 51.75 | +0.32 | +0.62% |
History on the Nasdaq:
SpaceX Debuts & Musk Becomes
the World’s First Trillionaire
The largest IPO in history did not disappoint. SpaceX opened at $150, peaked at $176.52, and closed at $161.11 — a 19.3% pop that pushed its market cap above $2 trillion and made Elon Musk the world’s first trillionaire. Meanwhile, a draft U.S.–Iran memorandum to reopen the Strait of Hormuz lifted the broader market for a second straight day, capping the most volatile week of 2026.
Index Close
Dow Jones
51,202.26
S&P 500
7,431.46
Nasdaq Composite
25,888.84
Russell 2000
~2,930
Market Snapshot
🚀 The Main Event — SpaceX (SPCX) Trading Debut
Largest IPO in History Closes Up 19.3% — Valuation Surpasses $2 Trillion
SpaceX began trading on the Nasdaq Friday morning with SpaceX President & COO Gwynne Shotwell and CFO Bret Johnsen ringing the opening bell in New York, while Elon Musk joined remotely from Texas. Shares opened at $150 — 11.1% above the $135 IPO price — and surged as high as $176.52 during the session before settling at $161.11, a gain of 19.34% on day one. The closing valuation pushed past $2 trillion, surpassing Saudi Aramco’s previous IPO record and making this the largest public offering in history by a wide margin.
The rally cemented Elon Musk’s status as the world’s first trillionaire, with his roughly 42% stake in SpaceX now worth well over $800 billion alone — before accounting for his Tesla, xAI, and other holdings. Perpetual futures contracts on Hyperliquid and Binance traded as high as $185 during the session — implying some traders see further upside beyond the closing price — before settling back near $172, still about 27% above the IPO price.
“That’s a fast ball right down the middle perfect,” said CNBC’s Jim Cramer of the opening indication. “People will say it’s done fairly and those who had the foresight to put in for stock did well.”
Not everyone is convinced the valuation is justified. CFRA Research’s Keith Snyder issued a sell rating with a 12-month price target of just $115 — well below the IPO price — calling the growth assumptions required to justify $2 trillion “borderline comical.” Starlink, SpaceX’s profitable core, generated $11.4 billion in 2025 revenue with a 63% EBITDA margin and 10.3 million subscribers. But the xAI segment posted a $6.36 billion operating loss in 2025 — a significant drag that bulls are betting will narrow as AI compute scales. With only a 4% public float, SpaceX’s inclusion in the MSCI index starting June 13 will create immediate structural buying demand from index funds — a dynamic that could support the stock in its first trading days regardless of fundamentals.
📉 The Other Side of the Trade — Space & Satellite Stocks Get Crushed
As SpaceX soared, competitors and adjacent space names fell across the board — a classic capital-rotation pattern. Virgin Galactic (SPCE) plunged as much as 37%, Rocket Lab (RKLB) tumbled up to 13% intraday before paring losses to close down ~7%, Firefly Aerospace (FLY) dropped more than 20%, AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) fell over 16%, and Redwire (RDW) and EchoStar (SATS) each declined more than 11%. A space-focused ETF fell 7.5%. The message: with $75 billion newly absorbed by SpaceX and SPCX now the dominant name in the sector by an enormous margin, investors are concentrating space-sector exposure into the new giant and abandoning smaller peers.
🕊️ Iran Deal — From “Settlement” to Draft Memorandum
Following Thursday’s “great settlement” announcement, Friday brought concrete substance: a draft U.S.–Iran memorandum reportedly commits to lifting oil sanctions on Iran and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with a formal peace deal potentially being signed as early as Sunday in Switzerland. This is the most significant de-escalation development since the conflict began. President Trump had separately walked back his Thursday night threat to strike Iran “VERY HARD” and take “total control” of Iran’s oil and gas assets — instead pivoting toward this diplomatic framework. If signed, the deal would represent the most consequential geopolitical resolution of 2026 and would directly address the inflation dynamics that have dominated markets for the past two weeks: oil supply, the Strait of Hormuz, and the CPI/PPI shocks of June 9–11.
Notable Movers
📈 Winners
📉 Losers
What Happened Today
“The big question for traders is how the SpaceX action spills over into the broader market,” said TheStreet Pro contributor James “Rev Shark” DePorre ahead of the open — articulating the central worry of the day: that a $75 billion IPO would drain liquidity from the broader market and signal a top. By the close, the verdict was mixed-to-positive. The Nasdaq’s modest +0.31% gain — its smallest of the week — suggests some liquidity drain did occur, with capital flowing toward SPCX and away from other growth names. But the Dow’s +0.70% and the S&P 500’s +0.50% gains show the broader market absorbed the event without major disruption.
Prediction markets had been buzzing all morning. Polymarket odds for SpaceX opening between $150 and $200 surged to 83% ahead of the bell — and the actual $150 open landed precisely in that range, near the lower bound. The subsequent rally to $176.52 intraday validated the bulls, even as the stock pulled back from those highs into the close. Dan Ives of Wedbush Securities called the listing “an important moment for the broader tech sector,” framing it as the AI revolution’s “next step forward” rather than an isolated space story.
Adobe’s earnings beat got overshadowed by an executive departure. The company reported record Q2 revenue of $6.62 billion (vs. $6.45B consensus) and adjusted EPS of $5.96 (vs. $5.82 consensus), driven by strong AI demand — AI-first ARR tripled year-over-year to exceed $500 million. Adobe raised full-year guidance to $26.5–$26.6B revenue and $24.35–$24.45 EPS. But news that CFO Dan Durn is departing on June 15 to become CFO of Marvell Technology overshadowed the strong quarter. Stifel downgraded ADBE to Hold from Buy, and JPMorgan cut its price target to $340 from $420 (while maintaining Overweight) — citing a revised ARR guidance trajectory. ADBE shares, already down nearly 48% from their 52-week high of $416.39, traded near 52-week lows around $218.80.
The week’s two-day rally (Thursday + Friday) recovered significant ground but did not fully erase the damage from Monday through Wednesday’s CPI/PPI inflation shocks and the Iran helicopter incident. The S&P 500’s close of 7,431.46 remains below its June 1 record close of 7,599.96 — a reminder that even with the SpaceX spectacle and peace deal optimism, the index has not yet recovered to its pre-selloff highs.
Record Revenue, AI ARR Triples — But a CFO Exit Steals the Headline
Adobe’s headline numbers were unambiguously strong: revenue and EPS both beat consensus, full-year guidance was raised across the board, and AI-first annual recurring revenue tripled year-over-year to exceed $500 million — direct evidence that Adobe’s Firefly and AI tooling are converting into real revenue, not just hype. CEO Shantanu Narayen called it a quarter of “strong AI-driven demand across our customer groups.” Yet the stock fell on news that CFO Dan Durn — who has overseen Adobe’s finances through a period of significant AI investment — is departing for Marvell Technology, a direct beneficiary of this week’s chip-sector enthusiasm. The juxtaposition (Adobe loses a CFO to the same AI capex boom that is also pressuring Adobe’s stock via “AI replacement” fears) captures the strange cross-currents running through markets this week: AI is simultaneously the biggest tailwind and the biggest source of anxiety, often for the same companies.
₿ Bitcoin — Holding Near Recent Levels Amid “Cycle Low” Calls
Bitcoin held relatively steady Friday, continuing to track the broader risk-on tone from the Iran peace deal optimism after Thursday’s 3.48% jump to $63,424. Notably, Standard Chartered stated Friday that it believes the crypto market has reached its cycle low — a bullish call from one of the more crypto-constructive major banks. Whether this marks an actual turning point or simply reflects the same peace-deal sentiment lifting all risk assets remains to be seen. As always: Bitcoin’s price action this week has been a near-perfect mirror of macro headlines — down on inflation shocks and geopolitical escalation, up on peace deal hopes. That correlation is itself the point. An asset with genuine intrinsic value would have some independent anchor. Bitcoin has none — it is pure sentiment, amplified. Standard Chartered’s “cycle low” call may prove correct, but it is a bet on sentiment continuing to improve, not a valuation based on any underlying cash flow or asset backing.
Week in Review — June 8–12, 2026
| Day | Headline | S&P 500 | Nasdaq | Dow |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Jun 8 | Relief rally — Iran halts Israel strikes, Corning +7.4% | +0.93% | +1.44% | +0.58% |
| Tue Jun 9 | Iran downs U.S. helicopter, SOXX −8.6% intraday | −0.26% | −0.97% | +0.17% |
| Wed Jun 10 | CPI hits 4.2% (3-yr high), Oracle AH +11%, SMCI −18% | −0.48% | −0.62% | −0.59% |
| Thu Jun 11 | PPI 6.5%, Oracle −11.9%, “great settlement” with Iran | +1.75% | +2.54% | +1.86% |
| Fri Jun 12 | SpaceX debut +19.3%, Musk hits $1T, Iran draft deal | +0.50% | +0.31% | +0.70% |
What to Watch Next Week — Starting June 15
- Iran peace deal signing: If a formal agreement is signed Sunday in Switzerland as reported, expect a significant Monday gap in oil prices (lower) and potentially a broad market rally. If talks stall over the weekend, Friday’s gains could reverse quickly — the pattern this week has shown how fast sentiment can flip on Iran headlines.
- SPCX week-one trading: Historical comparisons suggest high-hype IPOs either hold gains (Twilio +27% week 1, CrowdStrike +33% week 1) or retrace toward issue price (Facebook −17%, DoorDash −17%). With MSCI inclusion beginning June 13 creating mechanical demand, SPCX has a structural tailwind — but CFRA’s $115 price target (vs. $161 close) suggests significant downside risk if sentiment cools.
- Dan Durn’s move to Marvell (effective June 15): Adobe loses its CFO to Marvell Technology — itself riding high after its +25-32% surge earlier this month. Watch for Adobe’s interim financial leadership commentary and whether Marvell’s stock reacts to gaining a CFO with deep AI-capex experience.
- FOMC meeting (June 17–18): With CPI at 4.2% and PPI at 6.5%, but oil potentially falling sharply on an Iran deal, the Fed faces its most complex decision of the year. A signed peace deal could give the Fed room to remain on hold without signaling hikes; absent a deal, hawkish commentary is likely.
- S&P 500 recovery to records: The index closed Friday at 7,431.46 — still 2.2% below its June 1 record of 7,599.96. Whether the market can fully recover this gap next week will be the clearest signal of whether this week’s volatility was a temporary shock or the start of a more sustained repricing.
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