| 📊 Alain’s Holdings — June 11, 2026 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Symbol | Name | Price | Change | Change % |
| VOO | Vanguard S&P 500 ETF | 678.23 | +11.18 | +1.68% |
| QQQ | Invesco QQQ Trust | 717.12 | +23.43 | +3.38% |
| XIU.TO | iShares S&P/TSX 60 ETF | 51.43 | +0.71 | +1.40% |
Peace Rally: Trump’s Iran Deal
Sends Dow Up 929 Points.
SpaceX Lists Tomorrow.
It was the most dramatic reversal of a dramatic week. After a morning of escalation — Trump threatening to hit Iran “very hard” and target Kharg Island — a single Truth Social post changed everything: “great settlement” reached with Iran. Stocks exploded higher. The Dow surged 929 points. Oil plunged 4%. Bitcoin jumped 3.5%. And SpaceX confirmed its $135/share IPO pricing ahead of Friday’s historic debut.
Index Close
S&P 500
7,394.30
Nasdaq Composite
25,809.66
Dow Jones
50,848.75
Russell 2000
2,921.03
Market Snapshot
The Day’s Wild Ride
From “Strike Iran Very Hard” to “Great Settlement” — in Six Hours
🕊️ The Iran Deal — What We Know
Trump’s announcement of a “great settlement” with Iran sent markets into rally mode in the final hours of trading. Details remain thin as of market close — no formal terms have been publicly disclosed — but the signal was enough to send Brent crude plummeting from above $95 to $89.09, its sharpest single-day drop since the conflict began. The Strait of Hormuz, which Iran had threatened to fully close, is expected to reopen under the terms of any agreement — which Trump said would happen “immediately” after a deal.
If the deal holds, the inflation outlook changes materially. JPMorgan had already flagged May as a potential “peak” for headline CPI if Hormuz reopens. A sustained reduction in energy prices could bring the Fed back to a neutral stance and remove the rate-hike risk premium that has weighed on markets for two weeks. Markets are not fully pricing in a durable peace yet — oil at $89 still reflects some residual skepticism — but Thursday’s close is the most constructive geopolitical signal since the conflict began.
📊 May PPI — The Morning’s Shock Before the Peace
The May Producer Price Index rose 1.1% month-over-month — well above the 0.7% consensus — putting the 12-month wholesale inflation rate at 6.5%, the highest since November 2022. This data was largely overshadowed by the afternoon Iran deal announcement, but it matters for the Fed: PPI feeds directly into the PCE deflator, the central bank’s preferred inflation gauge. If the Iran deal is genuine and oil falls sustainably below $85, PPI will rapidly reverse. If the deal unravels, these wholesale price pressures will continue filtering into core consumer inflation through the summer.
🔮 Oracle (ORCL) — The Most Confusing Earnings Reaction of the Year
- Revenue $19.2B (+21% YoY) — above consensus
- Non-GAAP EPS $2.11 — beat $1.96 estimate
- Cloud (IaaS) revenue +93% YoY
- Total cloud rev $9.9B (+47%)
- RPO backlog surged to $638B (+363% YoY)
- Q1 FY2027 guide: +27–29% rev growth — above consensus
- FY2027 revenue confirmed: $90B
- FY2026 capex surged 162% to $55.7B — above own $50B guide
- Plans to raise ~$40B more incl. $20B equity offering
- Free cash flow deficit deepened to −$23.7B (vs. −$394M in FY25)
- ~$300B of $638B backlog concentrated in OpenAI — key-customer risk
- Cloud rev grew 47% vs. 48% consensus — slight miss
- ORCL fell 11–12% at session lows · −15% in one week
The market’s verdict: the revenue story is real, but the capital spending story is terrifying. Oracle is now burning $23.7B in free cash flow annually to fund its AI ambitions — up from near-breakeven last year. The OpenAI concentration risk (~47% of backlog) adds a single-customer cliff that analysts are only beginning to price in. ORCL closed down approximately 11.9% on the day.
Notable Movers
📈 Winners
📉 Losers
What Happened Today
Intel’s surprise 10.3% surge was one of Thursday’s most striking sub-stories. With Oracle’s capex overshoot raising questions about where AI compute capacity will come from — and whether Oracle is over-relying on a single supplier relationship with OpenAI — some investors began rotating into Intel as a contrarian play. Intel’s upcoming 18A manufacturing node, its Terafab chipmaking plant (which Elon Musk appeared virtually to discuss at an ASML event), and its positioning as an alternative chip partner to TSMC for customers like Nvidia and Google all became suddenly more relevant. Applied Materials and Arm Holdings each gained 7.8% for similar reasons.
The Iran deal’s market mechanics were immediate and extreme. Brent crude fell from above $95 to $89.09 — a $6 drop in minutes. The VIX collapsed from above 22 to 19.44. The Russell 2000 — most sensitive to domestic economic conditions and rate expectations — led all indexes with a 3.02% gain. Cyclical and consumer-facing stocks, which had been under pressure from war-driven inflation, staged the sharpest bounces. The logic: a genuine Hormuz reopening takes 40+ basis points of “war premium” off headline inflation expectations, potentially removing the 50% rate-hike probability that had been building since last Friday’s NFP shock.
Adobe reported after the close and disappointed on guidance. While Q2 results were largely in line, the company issued below-consensus forward guidance for digital experience revenue — a segment where AI-replacement fears remain acute. Shares fell approximately 5% in after-hours trading. The AI “SaaSpocalypse” narrative that has stalked software stocks all week — accelerated by Anthropic’s new model releases and OpenAI’s reported plans to cut AI prices — remains an overhang for the sector heading into next week.
Nine of eleven S&P 500 sectors closed green, with tech, industrials, and materials leading the advance. Only energy — ironically, given the peace rally — and real estate declined. Energy stocks initially spiked on the Iran threats in the morning but gave back gains as the deal announcement sent oil prices sharply lower, putting oil-producer revenues under pressure even as the broader market cheered.
🚀 SpaceX (SPCX) — Confirmed Pricing · First Trade Tomorrow, June 12
SpaceX officially confirmed pricing of 556.6 million shares at $135 each, with underwriters granted a 30-day option to purchase up to 83.3 million additional shares. The company raised $75 billion at a $1.77 trillion valuation — the largest IPO in history. Starlink, its satellite internet subsidiary, generated $11.4 billion in revenue in 2025 with a 63% EBITDA margin and 10.3 million subscribers — the primary revenue engine. The average 12-month analyst price target is $165, implying +22% upside from the IPO price. Trading begins Friday morning on the Nasdaq under SPCX. With $250 billion in investor demand, an oversubscribed order book, and a peace rally into the opening, the setup for SPCX’s first day is historically rare.
₿ Bitcoin — $63,424 (+3.48%) · Iran Deal Lifts Speculative Assets
Bitcoin jumped 3.48% Thursday, closing at $63,424 — its best single-day gain since early May — as Trump’s Iran deal announcement triggered a broad risk-on wave across every asset class. The move is entirely consistent with how Bitcoin behaves: when macro sentiment improves sharply, a speculative asset with no intrinsic value rallies with everything else. This is not a thesis — it is momentum. Bitcoin remains down approximately 10% from its level at the start of last week and roughly 50% below its all-time high. One good day on a geopolitical headline changes nothing about the underlying reality: Bitcoin produces no earnings, holds no physical backing, and generates no cash flows. When the macro environment is genuinely supportive, it rises; when it is not, it falls first and hardest. Thursday’s bounce is welcome for holders — but it is not a floor.
What to Watch Tomorrow — Friday, June 12
- SpaceX (SPCX) first trade: The most anticipated opening bell moment in years. With $250B in demand, $1.77T valuation, and a peace-rally tailwind, SPCX could open well above $135. Watch the reference price vs. opening print, first-hour trading range, and whether retail allocation (via Robinhood/SoFi) creates a “pop and drop” dynamic or sustained buying.
- Iran deal durability: Thursday’s announcement was thin on details. By Friday morning, the first official statements from both sides will be scrutinized. If terms are confirmed, Brent crude could fall toward $85, providing a significant inflation tailwind. If the deal unravels over the weekend, expect an oil spike at Monday’s open.
- Adobe (ADBE) selloff: After-hours guidance miss will weigh on software stocks at Friday’s open. Combined with Oracle’s -12% session, the enterprise software sector faces two consecutive earnings headwinds. Watch whether the Iran peace rally outweighs the software-sector pain.
- University of Michigan sentiment (10:00 AM ET): Preliminary June consumer confidence reading. After two weeks of Iran-driven inflation shock, consumer sentiment is expected to have deteriorated sharply from May. A poor reading could temper Friday’s optimism even if markets open strong on the SPCX debut.
- Weekly close context: The S&P 500 is still below its June 1 closing level of 7,599. A strong Friday would make the week’s loss manageable; a weak session would confirm the two-week downtrend. The Nasdaq remains down significantly on the two-week basis even after Thursday’s bounce.
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