| π Alain’s Holdings β June 15, 2026 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Symbol | Name | Price | Change | Change % |
| VOO | Vanguard S&P 500 ETF | 693.83 | +11.88 | +1.74% |
| QQQ | Invesco QQQ Trust | 744.00 | +22.66 | +3.14% |
| XIU.TO | iShares S&P/TSX 60 ETF | 52.11 | +0.36 | +0.69% |
Peace, Confirmed.
Dow Hits a Record.
Nasdaq Has Its Best Day
Since March.
The war is over β at least on paper. President Trump confirmed late Sunday that the U.S.βIran deal is “now complete,” with both sides declaring an immediate and permanent end to military operations and the Strait of Hormuz reopening without a toll system. Markets responded with their best session in weeks: the Dow hit a fresh intraday all-time high and closed at a record, while the Nasdaq surged 3.07% β its best day since March 31. SpaceX extended its historic rally, with Australian mining billionaire Gina Rinehart revealed to hold a $1B+ stake.
Index Close
Dow Jones
51,671.03
S&P 500
7,554.29
Nasdaq Composite
26,683.94
Russell 2000
~2,953
Market Snapshot
ποΈ The Headline β U.S.βIran Peace Deal Confirmed
“The Deal With the Islamic Republic of Iran Is Now Complete” β Trump, Late Sunday
After a week that included a downed U.S. helicopter, a threatened total closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and Trump’s Thursday-night threat to strike Iran “VERY HARD,” both nations confirmed late Sunday that hostilities are over. Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif β who mediated the talks β said both sides have declared an immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts. The memorandum of understanding has reportedly already been signed electronically by a senior U.S. administration official, with the formal ceremony scheduled for Friday, June 19 (Juneteenth) in Switzerland.
The terms reported so far: the Strait of Hormuz β through which roughly 20% of global oil flows β will reopen without a toll system, and the U.S. will end its naval blockade of Iran. Reports suggest the framework includes a 60-day window for further negotiation over Iran’s nuclear program, meaning this is an “interim” agreement. TheStreet Pro’s Stephen Guilfoyle summarized the market reaction: with energy prices set to fall, “it stands to reason that… consumer level inflation will slow sharply,” adding “there certainly is good reason for optimism on this front for the first time in a couple of months.”
“Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!” β President Trump, Truth Social
Notable Movers
π Winners
π Energy / Defense β Underperformers
What Happened Today
This was the relief rally markets had been waiting for since June 9. Every major catalyst that had whipsawed stocks over the past week β the helicopter incident, the CPI shock, the PPI shock, Thursday’s threat-then-settlement β all pointed toward one outcome: a resolution to the Iran conflict. On Sunday night, that resolution arrived in full. Trump’s declaration that the deal is “now complete,” combined with explicit confirmation that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen without tolls, gave markets the green light to price out the entire geopolitical risk premium that had built up since early June.
The Nasdaq’s 3.07% gain was the standout number of the day β its best single-session performance since March 31, and a sharp reversal from the index’s choppy, often-negative path over the prior week (down 0.97% on Tuesday, down 0.62% on Wednesday). Technology stocks, which had been the primary battleground for the AI-financing-divide narrative all week, rallied broadly as the macro overhang lifted. With inflation data (CPI 4.2%, PPI 6.5%) both driven almost entirely by Iran-related energy costs, a genuine Hormuz reopening removes the primary justification for further Fed hawkishness β a critical input heading into Wednesday’s FOMC decision.
The Dow’s record close was its second of the month β the index had also closed at a record on June 4 (51,561.93) before the mid-week selloff. Thursday’s 929-point Iran-driven surge had already pushed the Dow back toward record territory; Monday’s additional 468.77-point gain (+0.92%) pushed it to a new intraday all-time high before settling at 51,671.03. Gains were broad-based β Goldman Sachs, Verizon, and JPMorgan were among the standout performers in Friday’s session and continued contributing to Monday’s strength, while Nike, Apple, and Merck lagged.
SpaceX wasn’t done. After Friday’s historic 19.34% debut-day pop to $161.11 and a $2 trillion-plus valuation, SPCX continued climbing Monday, rising another 5.3% in pre-market trading to $169.48. The most notable development: Australia’s wealthiest person, mining magnate Gina Rinehart, was revealed via Hancock Prospecting to hold a stake of more than $1 billion in SpaceX β a significant institutional validation just one trading day after the IPO. Zacks’ Brian Mulberry noted the stock’s behavior “seems to be much more orderly than what I expected… this is not some type of meme stock right out of the gate.” Renewed investor interest also lifted Rocket Lab and Planet Labs, suggesting the space sector’s earlier “rotation out of rivals” dynamic (seen Friday) may be reversing into a broader sector tailwind.
Gold and silver both rallied sharply β gold gained 2.81% to $4,357.70 and silver jumped 4.16% to $70.81 β which is notable given that “peace dividend” days typically see safe-haven assets sell off as risk appetite improves. The simultaneous rally in equities, precious metals, and risk assets like Bitcoin suggests Monday’s move was as much about a broad liquidity wave and renewed risk-taking across all asset classes as it was a narrow “flight from safety” trade.
π SpaceX (SPCX) β Day 2 Confirms Day 1 Wasn’t a Fluke
Far from the “pop and drop” pattern many high-profile IPOs experience, SpaceX extended its gains into a second session, rising 5.3% to $169.48 in pre-market trading. The revelation that Gina Rinehart’s Hancock Prospecting β Australia’s largest privately-owned company β has taken a stake exceeding $1 billion adds significant institutional credibility to the stock’s valuation just one trading day after its debut. SpaceX options begin trading Tuesday, June 16, which should add further liquidity and price discovery to a stock that remains float-scarce relative to its $2 trillion-plus valuation.
π The Inflation Story Just Flipped
Last week’s CPI (4.2% YoY, a 3-year high) and PPI (6.5% YoY, highest since November 2022) were the dominant negative narratives heading into the weekend β both driven almost entirely by Iran-conflict energy costs. With the Strait of Hormuz now confirmed to be reopening without tolls, the primary input behind both of those hot inflation prints is reversing in real time. JPMorgan had already flagged May as potential “peak CPI” if a Hormuz deal materialized β and one materialized within days. If oil sustains its decline through June, expect the June and July CPI/PPI reports to show meaningful disinflation, which would be the single most important macro tailwind for markets heading into the second half of 2026. This is also a critical input for Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, where new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivers his first policy guidance.
βΏ Bitcoin β Continuing Its Recovery Above $64,000
Bitcoin continued its recovery Monday, building on Thursday’s 3.48% jump to $63,424 and Friday’s indicated levels near $64,070, as the confirmed Iran peace deal extended the broad risk-on wave across all asset classes. This is the fourth consecutive day of improvement after Tuesday’s low of $60,783. As we’ve noted throughout this volatile stretch: Bitcoin’s price action has tracked geopolitical headlines almost tick-for-tick β down on escalation, up on de-escalation. Monday’s continued gains are consistent with that pattern, not a departure from it. Standard Chartered’s Friday call that the crypto market has reached its “cycle low” looks more credible with a confirmed peace deal in hand β but it remains, fundamentally, a bet on continued favorable sentiment. Bitcoin produces no earnings, holds no physical backing, and generates no cash flows. Its recovery this week is real, but it is a recovery in sentiment β not in any underlying value that wasn’t there a week ago.
What to Watch This Week β June 16-19
- SPCX options debut β Tuesday, June 16: SpaceX options begin trading for the first time, one of the most closely watched options launches in years. Expect significant volume and high implied volatility given the wide range between CFRA’s $115 price target and Monday’s pre-market price near $169.
- FOMC meeting β Wednesday, June 17-18: The Fed’s calculus has changed dramatically in 24 hours. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivers his first policy guidance against a backdrop of a confirmed peace deal and falling oil prices β a much more favorable setup than the 50% rate-hike-odds environment of last Wednesday. Current rate: 3.50%-3.75%, no June move expected.
- Oil prices through the week: With Hormuz reopening without tolls, watch the speed of crude’s decline. A rapid drop toward $80 or below would be the clearest signal that the inflation shocks of last week are reversing in real time.
- S&P 500 record watch: The index closed at 7,554.29, just 0.6% below its June 1 record of 7,599.96. A continuation of Monday’s momentum could see the S&P retake its all-time high as early as this week.
- Formal signing ceremony β Friday, June 19 (Juneteenth): U.S. markets are closed, but the formal signing in Switzerland will be watched globally for any surprises in the published terms β particularly regarding the reported 60-day window for nuclear negotiations.
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