May 11–15, 2026
Record highs on Thursday — then inflation struck on Friday
Dow crosses 50,000: On Thursday, the Dow Jones reclaimed 50,000 for the first time since February. The S&P 500 briefly topped 7,517 and the Nasdaq hit an intraday all-time high of 26,707 — all before Friday wiped out the gains.
Hot CPI sparks Friday selloff: April CPI rose to 3.8% YoY — the highest since May 2023 — driven by Iran war-related energy prices surging 17.9% annually. Core CPI also beat estimates at 2.8%. The S&P 500 fell 1.24% and Nasdaq dropped 1.54% on Friday alone.
Rate hike fears return: The 10-year Treasury yield spiked to 4.55% — a one-year high. Odds of a Fed rate hike in 2026 jumped from 1% to 45% in a single month, per CME FedWatch.
Powell era ends — Warsh era begins: Jerome Powell’s term as Fed Chair expired Friday, May 15. Kevin Warsh takes over amid reaccelerating inflation, surging yields, and growing FOMC division — a particularly fraught moment for a leadership transition.
Trump–Xi summit in Beijing: President Trump met Chinese President Xi on May 14–15, touting “fantastic” deals. However, no major breakthroughs on the Strait of Hormuz closure or formal trade agreements were announced — disappointing markets Friday.
Cerebras Systems IPO surges 68%: The AI chipmaker debuted on Nasdaq Thursday, closing near a $95 billion valuation on its first day — one of the most dramatic IPO pops in recent memory. Shares retreated ~10% on Friday.
Cisco beats estimates: Cisco reported Q3 non-GAAP EPS of $1.06, beating consensus by ~15%, and rose 3.3% on the week. Revenue near $14B met expectations.
Micron surges on AI demand: Micron Technology jumped over 15% on the week, driven by a wave of high-bandwidth memory orders tied to AI infrastructure buildout. The Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM) gained nearly 30% over the two-week period.
- Wed. May 21: Nvidia Q1 2026 earnings — the single most anticipated event of the quarter. Options pricing implies a ±8%+ move. Results will set the tone for the entire AI trade.
- Retail earnings wave: Home Depot, Target, and other major retailers report — a key read on consumer spending under rising inflationary pressure.
- Iran & oil: No resolution from the Trump–Xi summit. The Strait of Hormuz closure remains the dominant macro risk. Any peace deal or reopening could sharply reset energy and inflation expectations.
- Fed transition: Markets will watch Kevin Warsh’s first signals closely. With rate hike odds at 45%, any hawkish lean could weigh heavily on equities.
A much more dramatic week than the prior one — here’s the story in three acts:
Thursday euphoria: The Dow closed above 50,000 for the first time since February, while the S&P 500 hit a new record close at 7,501.24 and the Nasdaq set its own all-time high at 26,635.22. Charles Schwab
Friday reality check: The S&P 500 shed 1.24% to end at 7,408.50, the Nasdaq fell 1.54% to 26,225.14, and the Dow dropped 537 points to 49,526 — all dragged down by tech profit-taking and rising Treasury yields. Crestwood Advisors
The inflation catalyst: April CPI rose 0.6% month-over-month, putting the annual rate at 3.8% — the highest since May 2023 — while core CPI came in at 0.4% monthly and 2.8% annually, above estimates on both counts. ts2
The rate fear: The 10-year Treasury yield spiked to 4.55%, a one-year high, and chances of a Fed rate hike sometime in 2026 climbed to 45% — up from just 1% a month ago. Yahoo Finance
The headline grabber: Cerebras Systems surged 68% on its first day of trading Thursday, pushing its valuation close to $100 billion for a company with just over $500 million in 2025 revenue.
Take a Break This Weekend 🎉
Markets are closed — and so should your screen be. Our very own Elena Márquez is hitting the floor at the Montreal Salsa Congress this weekend, and honestly, she’s onto something. Whether you’re a dancer or not, stepping away is the best trade you can make right now. Head to the park with your family or your dog, cook a great meal, or invite your partner out to dinner. The charts will still be there Monday morning — but you’ll be sharper, calmer, and more focused if you give your mind a real rest first. See you at the open.
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