Alain’s Holdings
| Symbol | Name | April Return |
|---|---|---|
| VOO | Vanguard S&P 500 ETF | +10.4% |
| QQQ | Invesco QQQ Trust (Nasdaq proxy) | +15.3% |
| XIU.TO | iShares S&P/TSX 60 ETF | +3.6% |
| VRT | Vertiv Holdings Co. | +26.8% |
April Goes Down as the Best Month Since 2020
Wall Street closed April in historic fashion. The S&P 500 gained 10.4% for the month — its best performance since November 2020 — while the Nasdaq surged 15.3%, its best month since April 2020. The Dow Jones added 7.1%, its strongest monthly showing since November 2024.
On the final day of the month (April 30),
the S&P 500 closed at 7,209.01 — the first-ever close above the 7,200 threshold.
The Nasdaq settled at 24,892.31, and
the Dow at 49,652.14. All three major indexes are now trading well above where they started 2026, even after the dip triggered by the U.S.–Iran conflict in late February.
📊 The Big Picture: Earnings Beat Fear
The month’s defining story was the tug-of-war between two powerful forces: a strong Q1 earnings season on one side, and rising geopolitical risk on the other. Earnings won.
“There’s this big tug of war, but the earnings side is winning so far,” said Angelo Kourkafas, senior global investment strategist at Edward Jones. “The market is trying to look through near-term uncertainty — but of course, the longer it lasts, the more acute the pressures are.”
Investors chose to anchor on corporate fundamentals rather than headlines — a bullish signal, though one that raises the stakes if Q2 earnings begin to show war-driven cost pressure.
🛢️ Oil Shock: The Elephant in the Room
The U.S.–Israel war against Iran — launched in late February — continued to roil energy markets throughout April. Brent crude hit $114/barrel at its peak, reaching levels not seen in nearly four years. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) traded above $105.
The impact was felt at the pump: California gasoline prices hit $6.01 per gallon, a 30% increase since the war began and the highest level since October 2023. Nationally, rising gas prices pushed the PCE inflation gauge up 0.7% in March — the sharpest monthly jump in years — bringing the annual rate to 3.5%, well above the Fed’s 2% target.
🏦 The Fed: On Hold, No Guidance
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at its April meeting. Chair Jerome Powell and the committee declined to signal the direction of future moves, citing elevated geopolitical uncertainty and the risk that oil-driven inflation could persist.
Two regional Fed presidents — Neel Kashkari (Minneapolis) and Beth Hammack (Cleveland) — dissented from the post-meeting statement’s language, arguing that any form of forward guidance was inappropriate given the current environment. Markets are now watching incoming data closely for signals on when — or if — cuts will resume.
🏆 April’s Big Winners
🟢 NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) +49%
NXP surged after a strong Q1 2026 earnings report and an optimistic outlook, benefiting from continued demand in automotive and industrial chip markets.
🟡 Qualcomm (QCOM) +37%
Qualcomm beat Q2 earnings estimates and disclosed that a leading hyperscaler custom silicon engagement is on track for initial shipments later this year — a significant AI tailwind the market had not fully priced in.
🔵 Caterpillar (CAT) +20%
CAT hit a record high after reporting better-than-expected quarterly figures and raising its annual revenue outlook. The industrial bellwether is up 53% in 2026, driven by surging construction and data center demand. Caterpillar is viewed as a proxy for the global economy — its optimism mattered.
🔵 Alphabet (GOOG) +29%
Alphabet posted a record quarter for its cloud unit, with revenue beating expectations. The stock gained 10% on earnings day and added over a third for the month of April — its best monthly performance since 2004. The company raised its 2026 capex guidance to as much as $190 billion, signaling confidence in its AI infrastructure buildout.
💊 Eli Lilly (LLY) +0.6%
Lilly reported 56% revenue growth to $19.8 billion, with Mounjaro up 125% and Zepbound up 80%. The pharma giant raised its full-year sales outlook to $82–$85 billion, up from $80–$83 billion previously. Weight-loss drug demand remains robust.
🛳️ Royal Caribbean (RCL) -4.5%
Royal Caribbean beat Q1 earnings expectations — adjusted EPS of $3.60 vs. the $3.20 estimate — as travel demand stayed resilient despite elevated fuel costs.
📱 Apple (AAPL) — Beat After the Bell (April 30) +11%
Apple closed out the month with a clean Q2 earnings beat: EPS of $2.01 vs. $1.95 expected, revenue of $111.18B vs. $109.66B expected, and services revenue of $30.98B. The results were the first since Tim Cook announced his September departure, with John Ternus named as his successor. iPhone revenue missed estimates for the second time in three quarters — a storyline to watch in May.
📉 April’s Notable Losers
Meta Platforms (META) +5%
Meta tumbled after hiking its full-year capex guidance to $125–$145 billion, raising concern over AI spending discipline. The announcement overshadowed an otherwise solid Q1 earnings beat. User growth also disappointed.
Microsoft (MSFT) +12%
Microsoft fell after disclosing that spending would reach $190 billion in 2026 due to high memory costs — a similar concern to Meta’s. Despite beating on cloud revenue, the capex overhang weighed on the stock.
Robinhood (HOOD) +6.6%
Robinhood missed Q1 2026 earnings and revenue expectations, driven by a 47% drop in crypto trading fees as digital asset volatility cooled from its earlier peaks.
💰 Commodities & Crypto Snapshot
| Asset | April Level | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | ~$114/bbl (peak) | Iran tensions driving supply fears |
| WTI Crude | ~$105/bbl | Retreated from highs late month |
| Gold | ~$4,637/oz | Supported by geopolitical uncertainty & inflation |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | ~$76,000–$77,000 | Risk-on rally; minor pullbacks on profit-taking |
🔭 Looking Ahead to May
With April in the books as the best month in over five years, May opens with a new set of questions:
- Will the U.S.–Iran conflict escalate, or does a deal through Pakistani mediators take shape?
- Can the Strait of Hormuz reopen and ease the oil shock on household budgets?
- How will the market react to the incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first signals on rate policy?
- Does Apple’s CEO transition — Tim Cook out, John Ternus in (effective Sept. 1) — weigh on the stock?
- Will Q2 earnings begin to show the cost pressures from elevated oil that Q1 mostly avoided?
The bottom line: April 2026 was a reminder that earnings can carry markets through geopolitical noise — at least for a while. The bulls are in control for now. But the longer oil stays above $100 and the Middle East conflict drags on, the harder it will be for fundamentals to hold the line.
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