May 2026
Sell in May? No way. Tech’s best month in years, nine straight winning weeks, and an AI earnings tsunami.
Week 1: Records and a jobs bombshell. S&P 500 +2.3%, Nasdaq +4.5%. April nonfarm payrolls came in at 115,000 — nearly double the 60,000 consensus. Technology surged 8.4%. Cloudflare fell 14% on AI-driven layoffs. The six-week winning streak built on April’s +10.6% surge was extended.
Week 2: Euphoria Thursday, CPI shock Friday. The Dow briefly crossed 50,000 on Thursday with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting all-time intraday highs. Then April CPI arrived at 3.8% YoY — the highest since May 2023. Rate hike odds exploded from 1% to 45% in a single week. Jerome Powell’s term ended Friday; Kevin Warsh was sworn in as the new Fed Chair.
Week 3: Nvidia rewrites the record books. Q1 FY2027 revenue of $81.6B — up 85% YoY — crushed every estimate. Jensen Huang called it “the largest infrastructure buildout in human history.” SpaceX filed its S-1, targeting a $75B raise at up to $2T valuation. Qualcomm surged 18% on a Stellantis deal. The U.S. government awarded $2B to quantum computing companies. The Dow set a new record close at 50,579.
Week 4: Dell and Snowflake close the month in style. Dell reported $43.8B in revenue (+88% YoY), booked $24.4B in AI orders, and surged 33% — its best day ever. Snowflake jumped 36% on a $6B Amazon deal. Micron crossed the $1 trillion market cap. The Dow closed above 51,000 for the first time in history. PCE came in at 3.8%; Q1 GDP was revised down to +1.2%. Markets shrugged at the data and closed the month at all-time highs.
- June 2 — May jobs report: Nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate. A strong print raises the probability of a Fed rate hike; a weak number could calm yields and extend the rally into a tenth week.
- June 11–12 — SpaceX (SPCX) IPO: Investor roadshow begins ~June 4. If pricing holds, this will be the largest IPO in history at up to $2 trillion in valuation. Expect significant market-wide attention and potential volatility.
- June 16–17 — FOMC meeting: Kevin Warsh’s first rate decision as Fed Chair. With PCE at 3.8%, core PCE at 3.3%, GDP slowing to +1.2%, and rate hike odds near 50%, this is the most consequential FOMC meeting in years. His tone will set the trajectory for the summer.
- Iran war & oil: The Strait of Hormuz closure remains the single largest macro wildcard. Any confirmed peace deal would immediately reset energy prices and inflation expectations. No deal means oil stays elevated, inflation stays hot, and Warsh faces an impossible position.
- Valuation reality check: The S&P 500 forward P/E stands at ~21.2× — above both the 5-year (19.9×) and 10-year (18.9×) averages. AI earnings are real and powerful. But the bar for H2 2026 is now extraordinarily high, and any earnings deceleration will be felt sharply at these multiples.
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